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How to detect the opportunity for disruptive innovation?

Much was said about the innovators' dilemma. But for me it is still hard to distinguish between disruptive innovation from non-disruptive in the present. Looking back on past ones it seems clear to me.
In the disruptive innovation lies great opportunity as a single person can innovate in a holistic way with relatively small money. But still, it is a bet. Disruptive innovation is an extension to the hedgehog concept.

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